No-moat-rated Rayonier reported underwhelming first-quarter results as soft timber demand and lower selling prices constrained results. The southern timberland and pacific northwest timberland segments both reported double digit revenue declines in the quarter. Mainly, in the southern timberland segment, demand was softer than we had expected and salvage timber from Hurricane Helene last year has temporarily increased market supply, which negatively affected volumes and weighted average stumpage pricing. Management noted it expects the impact of salvage timber to dissipate in the second quarter, which should improve results in the southern timberland segment in the second half of the year as industry volumes normalize. Nevertheless, a recent slowdown in demand from sawmills and heightened economic uncertainty has raised some concern of some weakness persisting into the second half of the year. As such, we've decreased our fair value estimate to $30 per share from $32 due to lower near-term timberland revenue and profitability in our forecast.
Show me how fair value is derived (00:41)
Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.