The world’s second-largest owner and operator of temperature-controlled warehouses, Americold Realty Trust COLD is having a tough 2025. First-quarter results disappointed, and management lowered its guidance for the year, saying macroeconomic weakness was damping consumer buying habits and affecting storage volume. Americold’s shares have fallen more than 20% in the past few months. But we think near-term challenges have already been priced in, and we expect the company to continue to expand its share of this consolidating industry. Americold looks attractive today for its appreciation potential and burly yield. This cheap stock lands on our list of The Best REITs to Buy and is among Morningstar Chief US Market Strategist Dave Sekera’s buys in 3 Stocks to Buy and 3 Stocks to Toss Before the Market Storm.

Americold Realty owns and operates cold storage warehouses mainly for perishable food products but also other temperature-sensitive items like pharmaceuticals, florals, and chemicals. More than four-fifths of its warehouses are in North America, and we consider them to be among the best in terms of quality and location. The company provides ancillary warehouse services like flash freezing and picking/packing and also has a transportation services segment where it brokers, manages, and operates transportation for its customers. The remainder of revenue comes from operating facilities on behalf of customers. We think that Americold should be able to achieve mid-single-digit net operating income growth in the upcoming decade.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Americold

• Fair Value Estimate: USD 31
• Star Rating: 5 Stars
• Economic Moat Rating: None
• Uncertainty Rating: Medium

Economic Moat Rating

Given the lack of switching costs and the ease of additional development, we do not believe that Americold has a durable competitive advantage. In 2024, Americold derived nearly 90% of revenue and 95% of net operating income from the rent, storage, and warehouse services segment. Its other two business lines—third-party managed services and transportation services—operate with thin margins that are in line with logistics companies. Because these add-on services are typically sold at cost plus a fixed service fee and have low margins in general, we view them as largely complementary to Americold’s core business of leasing temperature-controlled warehouses and not a major factor in the company’s moat rating.

Read more about Americold’s moat rating.

Fair Value Estimate for Americold Stock

Our fair value estimate is USD 31 per share. Our model uses a long-term weighted average cost of capital of 7.2%, and we apply an enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 19.2 times after modeling an explicit 10-year forecast. We project same-store economic occupancy of 79.60% in 2026 and 81.00% in 2029. We forecast a 2.2% compound annual growth rate for total rent and storage revenue per economically occupied pallet in the company’s portfolio over the next decade. As Americold passes on new pricing and occupancy rates tick up, we expect profitability to improve in the warehouse services segment thanks to significant operating leverage. We project a warehouse service net operating income margin of 12.5% in the terminal year of our forecast. Over the next 10 years, we forecast same-store NOI to grow at a 3.5% compound annual rate and adjusted funds from operations to grow at 4.8%.

Read more about Americold’s fair value estimate.

Risk and Uncertainty

The cold storage industry’s fortunes are tied to changes in overall demand for food, which is relatively inelastic. We view potential overcapacity as a threat to Americold. We expect more speculative development, especially in areas with high demographic growth. The rise in e-commerce, online grocery, and at-home meal kits has the potential to increase demand for temperature-controlled warehouse space in the long term, but the impact is immaterial for now. Some larger food distributors have made investments in distribution and logistics. Their entrance into cold storage could drag down demand for Americold’s assets. Vertical integration in the food industry could result in higher vacancies, but cold storage is not a core competency for Americold’s tenants, which could outweigh the benefits.

Read more about Americold’s risk and uncertainty.

Americold Bulls Say

• Demand for cold storage is tied to demand for food, which is relatively stable through economic cycles.
• We expect demand for temperature-controlled storage space to rise due to consumers’ increasing desire for greater variety and fresh/organic food choices, as well as a newfound focus on resilience over efficiency in supply chains.
• The temperature-controlled warehouse space has rapidly consolidated in the past decade; Americold and rival Lineage combined control more than 45% of North American capacity.

Americold Bears Say

• A flood of capital from private equity and other institutional investors could create overcapacity, put downward pressure on rents, and depress capitalization rates.
• While current service margins are strong, any future labor-related disruptions could result in lower margins in the warehouse services business.
• Cold storage will not benefit as much from the adoption of e-commerce as dry industrial warehouses will, since grocery stores will remain the point of fulfillment for most perishable items.

This article was compiled by Susan Dziubinski and Sylvia Hauser. Data as of June 11, 2025.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.