Our favourite Canadian stocks at March 2016 month-end

A recap of stocks Morningstar analysts recommend

Morningstar 6 April, 2016 | 5:00PM
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The Canadian Core Buy list significantly underperformed the S&P/TSX 60 Index during March, posting a total return that came in at 0.4% compared to the benchmark's gain of 5.1%. Despite double-digit gains from Tourmaline Oil (TOU) and National Bank of Canada (NA) (10.2% and 16.7%, respectively) this was not enough to offset the substantial drop of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX), which dropped 64.0% during March.

The Core Buy list retains its cumulative outperformance against the benchmark; with a total return since inception of 132.1% versus 91.6% for the benchmark S&P/TSX, a difference of 40.5 percentage points.

Our model recommended several changes to April's Core Pick list. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) was downgraded from the Consider Buy to the Consider Hold list, while Valeant Pharmaceuticals was removed from the list entirely from its previous position on the Consider Buy list. CI Financial (CIX) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) were upgraded to the Consider Buy list from the Consider Hold list, and Fortis (FTS) and Canadian National Railway (CNR) were each downgraded from the Consider Hold list to the Consider Sell list.

A recap of stocks on this month's Consider Buy List

 Cameco remains on the list from last month. The stock trades at a 33.3% discount to our fair value estimate of $25.

 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce remains on the list from last month. The stock trades at a 27.1% discount to our fair value estimate of $133.

 Canadian Pacific Railway was added to the list this month. The stock trades at a 3.6% discount to our fair value estimate of $179.

 CI Financial was added to the list this month. The stock trades at a 18% discount to our fair value estimate of $35.

 Enbridge remains on the list from last month. The stock trades at a 6.4% discount to our fair value estimate of $54.

 National Bank of Canada remains on the list from last month. The stock trades at a 33.6% discount to our fair value estimate of $64.

 Restaurant Brands International remains on the list from last month. The stock trades at a 8.3% discount to our fair value estimate of $55.

 Tourmaline Oil remains on the list from last month. The stock trades at a 5.2% discount to our fair value estimate of $29.


The Canadian Income Buy list outperformed the S&P/TSX 60 Index during March, posting a total return that came in at 8.0% compared to the benchmark's gain of 5.1%. Strong gains were led by National Bank of Canada (NA) and IGM Financial (IGM), with total returns of 16.7% and 10.5%, respectively. Each company on the buy list posted sizable gains, the lowest among the group being Peyto Exploration & Development (PEY) with a total return of 4.2%.

The Income Buy list has generated a cumulative return since inception of 159.5%, while the S&P/TSX benchmark returned 91.6% over the same period, a difference of 67.9 percentage points.

Our model recommended several additional changes to our Income Pick list for April. Pembina Pipeline (PPL), Shaw Communications Class (SJR.B) and Telus (T) were downgraded from the Consider Buy list to the Consider Hold list. These names were replaced with Cameco (CCO) and Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers (RBA), which were upgraded to the Consider Buy list, and Restaurant Brands International (QSR) which was newly added to the Consider Buy list this month.

A recap of stocks on this month's Consider Buy List

 AGF Management remains on the list from last month. The stock offers a dividend yield of 6.2% and trades at a 14.3% discount to our fair value estimate of $6.

 Cameco was added to the list this month. The stock offers a dividend yield of 2.4% and trades at a 33.3% discount to our fair value estimate of $25.

 Enbridge remains on the list from last month. The stock offers a dividend yield of 4.2% and trades at a 6.4% discount to our fair value estimate of $54.

 IGM Financial remains on the list from last month. The stock offers a dividend yield of 5.8% and trades at a 2.2% discount to our fair value estimate of $40.

 National Bank of Canada remains on the list from last month. The stock offers a dividend yield of 5.1% and trades at a 33.6% discount to our fair value estimate of $64.

 Peyto Exploration & Development remains on the list from last month. The stock offers a dividend yield of 4.6% and trades at a 3.7% discount to our fair value estimate of $30.

 Restaurant Brands International was newly added to the list this month. The stock offers a dividend yield of 1.5% and trades at a 8.3% discount to our fair value estimate of $55.

 Ritchie Bros Auctioneers was added to the list this month. The stock offers a dividend yield of 2.5% and trades at a 12.3% discount to our fair value estimate of $40.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar Rating
AGF Management Ltd Shs -B- Non-Voting11.70 CAD1.12Rating
Bank of Nova Scotia73.43 CAD-0.15Rating
Bausch Health Companies Inc6.22 CAD-2.20
Cameco Corp80.34 CAD-1.64
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce93.43 CAD-0.30Rating
Canadian National Railway Co144.26 CAD-0.52Rating
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd112.09 CAD0.00Rating
CI Financial Corp31.43 CAD-0.10Rating
Enbridge Inc63.87 CAD0.87Rating
Fortis Inc67.05 CAD0.72Rating
IGM Financial Inc43.81 CAD-2.01Rating
National Bank of Canada135.07 CAD1.12Rating
Pembina Pipeline Corp51.43 CAD-0.10Rating
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp18.50 CAD-1.33
Restaurant Brands International Inc97.98 CAD0.37Rating
Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc144.59 CAD0.89Rating
TELUS Corp22.48 CAD0.49Rating
Tourmaline Oil Corp61.88 CAD-2.27

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