Not enough information to predict a recession

There are challenges globally and all is hanging on the U.S. as the only growth opportunity currently, says Picton Mahoney

Ruth Saldanha 9 April, 2019 | 5:00PM

 

 

Ruth Saldanha: Last month the Canadian yield curve inverted causing panic about an imminent recession. However though a yield curve inversion has accurately predicted the past five U.S. recessions, the same isn’t really true for Canada. Scotia Bank economists have pointed out that an inversion successfully signaled a recession in the early 1990s, but inverted without a subsequent recession both in 1986 and 2000 and though we did have a recession in 2015 there was no inversion. So what does this mean will we have a recession here in Canada, Picton Mahoney's Phil Mesman is here to tell us what he thinks. Phil, thank you so much for being here today.

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Ruth Saldanha

Ruth Saldanha  Ruth Saldanha is Senior Editor at Morningstar.ca