Gold prices dropping

Morningstar's Elizabeth Collins says Cyprus kicked off the downward trend

Ashley Redmond 24 April, 2013 | 6:00PM Elizabeth Collins
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Ashley Redmond: I'm on the line with Elizabeth Collins. Elizabeth thanks so much for joining me.

Elizabeth Collins: Thank you for having me.

Redmond: Now, Elizabeth, last week, we saw a dramatic drop in the price of gold. In fact, I think it was the biggest drop in 30 years. So, what was behind this?

Collins: Well, last week, I think we saw some momentum continuing from news events that had occurred earlier in the period. And I think what really kicked things off was Cyprus being required to sell down some of their central bank gold reserves in order to satisfy their bailout package needs and the fear that this would ricochet throughout the European Union. And then as we saw gold investing can be very momentum driven, maybe people were getting margin calls, people started losing confidence in gold, and we saw things really have a positive feedback loop and gold prices really take off in the downward direction.

Redmond: Okay. So, that's sort of the overall effect on global markets when gold actually dips. Now, what's your long-term forecast for gold?

Collins: Our long-term forecast for gold prices is about $1,200 by 2016, 2017.

Redmond: Okay. Now, in Canada, Elizabeth, how did dropping gold prices affect the Canadian market or even Canadian investors?

Collins: Well, there are several of the world's largest gold producers are Canadian headquartered, so companies like Barrick, IAMGOLD, Goldcorp, Yamana, Eldorado, these are all Canadian domiciled companies.

Redmond: And have any of these companies been adversely affected by the price of gold?

Collins: Sure. Operationally, obviously, they'll have lower cash flows now in the near term than what we would have expected a few weeks ago. Their stock prices have suffered. Maybe they will see some of their projects coming offline if their managers don't want to pursue growth projects in a lower cash flow environment.

Redmond: Okay. And I'm sure a lot of people watching would want to know this; Since there are so many Canadian gold companies in Canada, are they traditionally leveraged to gold, the bigger companies?

Collins: Sure, absolutely. Obviously, all gold miners will be impacted by the price of gold. To the extent that's true, higher cost miners have higher impact on their bottom line driven by gold prices. Obviously, a company's own production plans will have either a mitigating effect or an amplifying effect.

Redmond: Okay, great. It’s only Monday, so what are you expecting this week? What would you guys be looking for?

Collins: In the near-term I think the gold prices will always be volatile. It can be driven by macroeconomic news, interest rate information, central bank actions, and things of that nature.

Redmond: Okay. We'll have our eyes on the headlines and the gold prices. Thank you so much, Elizabeth.

Collins: Thank you.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar Rating
Barrick Gold Corp23.36 CAD0.13Rating
Eldorado Gold Corp20.77 CAD2.82
Iamgold Corp5.18 CAD2.17

About Author

Ashley Redmond

Ashley Redmond  Ashley Redmond is a Vancouver-based freelance writer.

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