Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Air Canada
- Fair Value Estimate: C$17.50
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of Air Canada’s Earnings
Air Canada’s AC first-quarter revenue declined 1% to C$5.2 billion, while operating profit declined C$120 million to a 2% operating loss. Management reduced its previous expectation of 3%-5% capacity expansion in 2025 to 1%-3% amid continued uncertainty about economic results in Canada.
Why it matters: The airline has yet to return capacity to its pre-pandemic level just shy of 113 million passenger miles. We forecast about 106 million miles for 2025. This continues the company’s recent trajectory of a more gradual, disciplined post-pandemic expansion compared with some competitors.
- Air Canada has also seen its cost structure expand, with structural unit costs reaching a record 14.46 cents per mile in 2024, up 6% from 2023, mostly due to increased wage rates.
- The company’s gradual growth trajectory is partly involuntary, limited by delayed aircraft deliveries, but also reflects its disciplined approach in a competitive environment wherein oversupply in some of its markets have curtailed near-term growth plans.
The bottom line: We have incorporated a slower 2025 and tapered our medium-term forecast, resulting in a slight fair value estimate increase to C$17.50 per share from C$17.20. The shares appear fully valued as investors balance lower growth expectations with the company’s plans to maintain pricing and cost discipline.
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