Bank of Montreal Earnings: Provisioning Increases Amid Trade Uncertainty, US Segment Still a Drag

Maintaining our fair value estimate for Bank of Montreal stock.

Maoyuan Chen 28 May, 2025 | 6:24PM
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The Bank of Montreal (BMO) building is standing in downtown Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

Key Morningstar Metrics for BMO Financial Group


What We Thought of BMO Financial Group’s Earnings

Bank of Montreal BMO reported OK results, with adjusted EPS of C$ 2.62, up 1% from a year ago. Investors should be aware that the trajectories of the Canadian and US economies have heightened uncertainty related to tariffs.

Why it matters: Bank of Montreal’s Canadian banking segment net income declined 10% from the prior year, mostly driven by a 53% increase in provisioning costs. The US segment reported adjusted return on equity of 6.9%, improving from 2024 but still much lower than the bank’s medium-term target of 12%-plus.

· Total bank provisioning increased by 4% from the previous quarter, with performing loan provisioning increasing 90% to C$ 289 million, driven by deteriorated economic outlooks for the Canadian and US economies.

· The bank maintains its 2025 impaired provisioning guidance of high 40 basis points of total loans, but it cautioned on a prolonged higher tariff’s impact on higher credit results than the guidance.

The bottom line: We maintain our C$ 146/USD 102 fair value estimates for narrow-moat-rated Bank of Montreal as we incorporate the latest results. We view shares as fairly valued.

· Valuation for the Canadian banking sector has largely recovered from April lows after some de-escalation in tariff rates. However, we still think the Canadian and US economies have elevated uncertainty, and we maintain our Medium Uncertainty Rating for the bank.

Key stats: The bank’s wealth management segment was a bright spot for the quarter, with net income increasing 14% from a year ago, driven by higher asset-based revenue. Assets under management increased 13%, and assets under administration were up 14% year over year.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

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Maoyuan Chen  is an equity analyst for Morningstar.

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