National Bank of Canada Earnings: Strong Trading Revenue; Closes Canadian Western Bank Acquisition

Maintaining our fair value estimate for National Bank of Canada stock.

Maoyuan Chen 28 May, 2025 | 8:49PM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

View at the logo sign of National bank Canada

Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

Key Morningstar Metrics for National Bank of Canada


What We Thought of National Bank of Canada’s Earnings

National Bank of Canada NA reported strong results, with trading revenue up 23% from a year ago. Adjusted net income increased 21% from a year ago, excluding the results from the recently closed Canadian Western Bank acquisition (Feb. 3).

Why it matters: National Bank of Canada’s organic growth, excluding Canadian Western Bank, remained strong, with average loans increasing 7% year over year. While trading revenue was strong this quarter, we caution investors not to over-extrapolate as this capital-market line can be volatile.

· Adjusted provisioning increased by 24% from the previous quarter to C$ 315 million, excluding CWB-related provisioning of C$ 230 million. Performing loan provisioning increased 49% from the prior quarter to C$ 85 million, excluding CWB, driven by a deteriorated economic outlook from tariffs.

· The bank maintains its 2025 impaired provisioning guidance of 25 basis points-35 basis points of total loans, including the CWB results.

The bottom line: We maintain our C$ 110 fair value estimate for narrow-moat-rated National Bank of Canada after incorporating the latest results and updated guidance. We view shares as moderately overvalued.

· Valuation for the Canadian banking sector has largely recovered from April lows after some de-escalation in tariff rates. However, we still think the Canadian economy has elevated uncertainty and maintain our Medium Uncertainty Rating for National Bank of Canada.

· We also think the execution risk of integrating CWB exists, given that CWB’s footprint and client profile are different from National Bank of Canada’s Quebec franchise.

Key stats: The bank maintains its target of C$ 270 million in cost and funding synergy (by end of fiscal 2027) for CWB. National Bank of Canada has realized C$ 27 million synergies so far and expects to deliver C$ 135 million in cost synergies by the first quarter of 2026.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Maoyuan Chen  is an equity analyst for Morningstar.

© Copyright 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy       Disclosures        Accessibility