Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Boralex
- Fair Value Estimate: C$36.00
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
Boralex BLX unveiled 2030 business and financial targets at its June 17 investor day. The firm plans to double installed capacity to approximately 7 gigawatts and increase EBITDA and discretionary cash flow per share at an 8%-10% compound annual growth rate.
Why it matters: We view the 8%-10% CAGR for key financial metrics as achievable and broadly in line with our expectations.
- We think the financing plan is reasonable, as it expects the majority of required equity investment from excess cash flow (C$1.3 billion) and capital recycling (C$900 million). Equity issuance is expected to be a modest C$500 million.
- The growth plan unveiled relies primarily on organic growth across Boralex’s four key markets: Canada, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
The bottom line: We are maintaining our C$36 per share fair value estimate after making only minor adjustments to our financial model.
- We consider the shares to be slightly undervalued, trading approximately 8% below our fair value estimate.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.