Graco Inc GGG

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Valuation Jan 28, 2025
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Graco Earnings: Full-Year Outlook Maintained Despite Tariff Uncertainty
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Krzysztof Smalec, CFA
Equity Analyst
Analyst Note | by Krzysztof Smalec, CFA Updated Apr 24, 2025

Wide-moat-rated Graco started the year with a solid first quarter, delivering an 8% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS. We’ve maintained our $7 fair value estimate, as our slightly more conservative near-term projections due to tariff-related uncertainty were offset by time value of money.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Krzysztof Smalec, CFA Updated Apr 24, 2025

Graco is a wide-moat industrial firm that has consistently delivered returns on invested capital above 20%. The company differentiates itself by manufacturing specialized products that handle difficult-to-move liquids, often used for niche applications where competition is limited. The firm offers a wide array of products, including pumps used to m

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Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.

The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.

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