McKesson Corp MCK

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Valuation May 09, 2025
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McKesson Earnings: Strong Year-End Shows Momentum and Resilience of Core Business
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Keonhee Kim
Equity Analyst
Analyst Note | by Keonhee Kim Updated May 09, 2025

Narrow-moat McKesson reported solid fourth quarter-earnings to end the year just as strongly as it started. Total revenue of $90.8 billion was up 18.9% year over year as favorable utilization trend, healthy prescription demand, and new customers all provided nice tailwinds during the three months. GLP-1 drugs (diabetes and weight-loss) contributed $10.9 billion during the quarter and now make up more than 13% of the firm’s distribution sales. This contribution was up $3.5 billion against last year, or nearly 50%, and made up about one quarter of distribution segment growth. We think this growth could slow in the first half of fiscal 2026 as it is lapping a period when key manufacturers had resolved their capacity and supply issues. But we still expect GLP-1s to be an important driver of growth for the US distribution industry both in the near and midterm. After incorporating strong 2026 guidance and adjusting upward our midcycle revenue growth assumptions, we raise our fair value estimate to $610 per share from $550.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Keonhee Kim Updated May 09, 2025

McKesson is one of three leading domestic wholesalers of branded, generic, and specialty pharmaceutical products. With over $300 billion in sales, the firm supplies roughly one third of the domestic drug distribution market. Together with Cardinal Health and Cencora, the three operate as a pharmaceutical wholesale and distribution oligopoly, supply

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate guides investors to the long-term, intrinsic value of a stock, helping them see beyond the present market price.

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Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.

The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.

Morningstar Equity Research Methodology

Price vs. Fair Value

 
Price/Fair Value
Total Return %
Index Total Return %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
-4.49 -28.22 11.92 -28.23 26.66 26.94 43.95 51.72 24.04 23.67 26.37
0.69 12.44 21.47 -5.05 31.22 20.90 25.78 -19.43 26.44 24.09 0.86

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