Dayforce Inc DAY

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Valuation May 27, 2025
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Paychex, Dayforce, and Paylocity: Differentiated End Markets Help Drive Value
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Alex Medow
Equity Analyst
Analyst Note | by Alex Medow Updated May 27, 2025

We are relaunching coverage of Paychex, Dayforce, and Paylocity due to a change in analyst. After review, we are maintaining our economic moat ratings of narrow for Dayforce and Paylocity and wide for Paychex. However, we are reducing our fair value estimates by 30% to $47 per share for Dayforce, by 29% to $142 for Paylocity, and by 6% to $122 for Paychex.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Alex Medow Updated May 27, 2025

Dayforce is a global human capital management, or HCM, software company offering a full suite of products that includes payroll, tax, workforce management, benefits, and talent intelligence functionality. The company has one operating segment but generates revenue through multiple offerings. The primary revenue source comes from recurring solutions

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate guides investors to the long-term, intrinsic value of a stock, helping them see beyond the present market price.

Show me how fair value is derived (00:41)

Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.

The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.

Morningstar Equity Research Methodology

Price vs. Fair Value

 
Price/Fair Value
Total Return %
Index Total Return %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
87.23 54.18 -2.66 -34.37 2.42 17.41 -23.62
0.69 12.44 21.47 -5.05 31.22 20.90 25.78 -19.43 26.44 24.09 0.85

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