VeriSign Inc VRSN

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Valuation Apr 25, 2025
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VeriSign Earnings: Continued Domain Base Expansion Drives Guidance Rise
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Dan Romanoff, CPA
Senior Equity Analyst
Analyst Note | by Dan Romanoff, CPA Updated Apr 25, 2025

We have raised our fair value estimate for VeriSign to $217 from $210, following a solid first-quarter 2025 earnings report and an upward revision of full-year guidance by the wide-moat firm. Quarterly revenue and profitability were in line with FactSet consensus expectations. This performance was driven by modest domain base expansion and improved renewal rates. Encouraged by these trends, management raised guidance for the fiscal year to revenue of $1.635 billion to $1.650 billion (previously $1.615 billion to $1.635 billion), and operating income between $1.110 billion and $1.125 billion. We view this increase positively and believe VeriSign’s resilient business model will help it weather ongoing macroeconomic headwinds. Additionally, the firm also declared its first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.77. Our valuation model has been updated accordingly. We view the shares as slightly overvalued.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Dan Romanoff, CPA Updated Apr 25, 2025

VeriSign provides registry services for several top-level domains, or TLDs, which are essential to the basic functioning of the internet. VeriSign plays a vital role in supporting the Domain Name System, or DNS, which is akin to a massive address book that matches human friendly domain names to the accompanying numbers-based Internet Protocol, or I

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate guides investors to the long-term, intrinsic value of a stock, helping them see beyond the present market price.

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Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.

The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.

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Price vs. Fair Value

 
Price/Fair Value
Total Return %
Index Total Return %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
53.26 -12.92 50.44 29.58 29.93 12.31 17.29 -19.06 0.25 0.49 30.42
0.69 12.44 21.47 -5.05 31.22 20.90 25.78 -19.43 26.44 24.09 0.47

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