Narrow-moat-rated Ball reported solid first quarter results that were slightly ahead of our expectations. Net sales rose almost 8% year over year, driven by strength in EMEA and South America. Notably, global aluminum packaging shipments grew 2.6% from a year ago, a welcomed change given shipment growth headwinds in the past few quarters. Demand in Europe remains strong, and results in North America appear to have finally turned a corner. Management noted the company’s exposure to tariffs is limited because most packaging products are manufactured and sold in the same region. In North America, some products cross country lines, but these products are generally included in USMCA. Nevertheless, Ball is not immune to a potential economic slowdown, which would have a material impact on the company’s beverage can shipments and affect operating rates at its plants. Ball has started the year on solid footing, but economic uncertainty and potential slowdown in consumer spending loom. We’ve increased our fair value estimate to $59 per share from $58 due to the time value of money.
Show me how fair value is derived (00:41)
Morningstar calculates the fair value estimate of a company based on a projection of how much cash the company will generate in the future. Morningstar analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. The analyst discounts future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.
The Morningstar Fair Value Estimate is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. If Morningstar's base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on Morningstar's fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in the future and is no indication of future performance.